# TRAI Daily Overview — Thursday, October 22, 2026

> **Screening/research, not investment advice.** Generated automatically from TRAI's public APIs; every number below comes from the cited endpoints.

**Headline:** SPY -1.2% · Semis -6.2% avg · VIX 19.0 (transitional) · short momentum still negative-expectancy  
**Duration:** 126.4 s · **Voice:** edge-tts (en-US-AndrewMultilingualNeural, rate +25%)  
**Engine run:** `2026-10-22_postclose_2026-10-23T00-37-11-870Z` (Oct 22, 2026, 8:37 PM ET)

## Daily Overview  `0.0s–12.8s`

TRAI daily overview for October 22. Screening and research, not investment advice. SPY fell 1.2%, QQQ 2.9% and the chip ETF SMH 6.0%.

## Market regime  `12.8s–38.3s`

The VIX, the market's 30-day implied volatility, rose 2.4 points to 19.0, a transitional reading. SPY's realized volatility, how much it actually moved over 20 days, is only 9.8%; that 9.2-point gap is the volatility risk premium. The term structure, short-dated versus 3-month VIX, is in mild contango, which is normal. TRAI's regime score is +17.5: neutral and choppy.

## What moved — and why  `38.3s–57.5s`

Earnings drove big moves: LRCX fell 11.8%, SPOT rose 11.1% and META fell 7.0% after missing EPS estimates by 30%. MRNA fell 17.6% with no earnings in the data, so the cause is unknown here.

## Long momentum  `57.5s–70.7s`

Long momentum means a market-beating rise on heavy volume, closing above VWAP, the day's volume-weighted average price. BX led with a residual z-score of 6.2, a market-adjusted move about 6 times its normal noise.

## Short momentum & mean reversion  `70.7s–81.0s`

Short momentum had 12 names, half of them chips, led by GEV. Mean reversion, big moves on ordinary volume that may fade, flagged 17, led by FCX.

## Scorecard — has it worked?  `81.0s–96.3s`

Over 126 replayed sessions, short momentum's expectancy, the average net profit per trade, is -0.46%, with a t-stat of -3.7: beyond ±2, so likely not luck. No bucket has a significant positive edge.

## Correlation clusters  `96.3s–106.7s`

Correlation clusters are stocks that move together: the largest, 24 names led by semis, has an average correlation of 0.59, so today's 12 shorts are about 3 independent bets.

## Earnings & gap risk  `106.7s–118.9s`

Gap risk is a jump past your stop overnight, often on earnings. 42 names report within 5 sessions, including picks KLAC, NOW and GOOGL on October 28.

## Sector rotation  `118.9s–126.8s`

Over 20 days, staples, utilities and energy lead SPY by 8 to 11 points; semis and tech trail by 12 and 6.

## Sources

- `/trai/api/latest` — Yahoo Finance public chart API (https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/) — daily (6mo) and 5-minute (5d, incl. pre/post) bars. Unofficial, may be delayed.
- `/trai/api/regime` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (2y): SPY, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M and the full TRAI universe for breadth.
- `/trai/api/scorecard` — Yahoo Finance public chart API (daily, 2y) + TRAI stored runs in Vercel Blob.
- `/trai/api/events` — Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (calendarEvents, earnings: last 4 reported quarters with report timestamps) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API daily bars (2y) for price reactions.
- `/trai/api/correlations` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (1y).
- `/trai/api/intraday` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, 5-minute regular-session bars (60-day maximum lookback Yahoo serves for 5m).
- `/trai/api/options` — Yahoo Finance public options endpoint (v7/finance/options) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API for realized vol and ^IRX.
- `/trai/api/macro` — FRED was unreachable from the server, so rates come from US Treasury daily yield-curve CSVs (home.treasury.gov) and dollar/credit use Yahoo Finance proxies (DXY, HYG/IEF, LQD/IEF); Yahoo Finance for sector ETFs and SPY.
- Explanations of *why* a stock moved are limited to what the data shows (earnings report dates/EPS surprise from `/trai/api/events`). Moves without a matching event are labeled as unexplained.