# TRAI Daily Overview — Thursday, October 29, 2026

> **Screening/research, not investment advice.** Generated automatically from TRAI's public APIs; every number below comes from the cited endpoints.

**Headline:** SPY -0.4% · Software -3.9% avg · VIX 17.2 (transitional) · short momentum still negative-expectancy  
**Duration:** 108.7 s · **Voice:** edge-tts (en-US-AndrewMultilingualNeural, rate +25%)  
**Engine run:** `2026-10-29_postclose_2026-10-29T20-34-14-137Z` (Oct 29, 2026, 4:34 PM ET)

## Daily Overview  `0.0s–13.3s`

TRAI daily overview for October 29. Screening and research, not investment advice. SPY fell 0.4%, QQQ 1.4% and the chip ETF SMH 1.1%.

## Market regime  `13.3s–41.2s`

The VIX, the market's 30-day implied volatility, rose 0.3 points to 17.2, a transitional reading. SPY's realized volatility, how much it actually moved over 20 days, is only 10.1%; that 7.1-point gap is the volatility risk premium. The term structure, short-dated versus 3-month VIX, is in steep contango (complacent / normal), which is normal. TRAI's regime score is +17.5: neutral and choppy.

## What moved — and why  `41.2s–46.2s`

NOW fell 27.0% with no earnings in the data, so the cause is unknown here.

## Long momentum  `46.2s–59.6s`

Long momentum means a market-beating rise on heavy volume, closing above VWAP, the day's volume-weighted average price. CVNA led with a residual z-score of 5.6, a market-adjusted move about 6 times its normal noise.

## Short momentum & mean reversion  `59.6s–65.0s`

Mean reversion, big moves on ordinary volume that may fade, flagged 5, led by GE.

## Scorecard — has it worked?  `65.0s–79.9s`

Over 126 replayed sessions, short momentum's expectancy, the average net profit per trade, is -0.46%, with a t-stat of -3.7: beyond ±2, so likely not luck. No bucket has a significant positive edge.

## Correlation clusters  `79.9s–90.1s`

Correlation clusters are stocks that move together: the largest, 24 names led by semis, has an average correlation of 0.59, so today's 0 shorts are about 3 independent bets.

## Earnings & gap risk  `90.1s–101.5s`

Gap risk is a jump past your stop overnight, often on earnings. 58 names report within 5 sessions, including picks DASH, MO and GILD on October 29.

## Sector rotation  `101.5s–109.1s`

Over 20 days, staples, utilities and energy lead SPY by 8 to 11 points; semis and tech trail by 12 and 6.

## Sources

- `/trai/api/latest` — Yahoo Finance public chart API (https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/) — daily (6mo) and 5-minute (5d, incl. pre/post) bars. Unofficial, may be delayed.
- `/trai/api/regime` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (2y): SPY, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M and the full TRAI universe for breadth.
- `/trai/api/scorecard` — Yahoo Finance public chart API (daily, 2y) + TRAI stored runs in Vercel Blob.
- `/trai/api/events` — Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (calendarEvents, earnings: last 4 reported quarters with report timestamps) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API daily bars (2y) for price reactions.
- `/trai/api/correlations` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (1y).
- `/trai/api/intraday` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, 5-minute regular-session bars (60-day maximum lookback Yahoo serves for 5m).
- `/trai/api/options` — Yahoo Finance public options endpoint (v7/finance/options) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API for realized vol and ^IRX.
- `/trai/api/macro` — FRED was unreachable from the server, so rates come from US Treasury daily yield-curve CSVs (home.treasury.gov) and dollar/credit use Yahoo Finance proxies (DXY, HYG/IEF, LQD/IEF); Yahoo Finance for sector ETFs and SPY.
- Explanations of *why* a stock moved are limited to what the data shows (earnings report dates/EPS surprise from `/trai/api/events`). Moves without a matching event are labeled as unexplained.

## Data warnings

- /regime is as of 2026-10-22, not 2026-10-29
- /scorecard is as of 2026-10-22, not 2026-10-29
- /correlations is as of 2026-10-22, not 2026-10-29
- /macro is as of 2026-10-22, not 2026-10-29