# TRAI Daily Overview — Friday, October 30, 2026

> **Screening/research, not investment advice.** Generated automatically from TRAI's public APIs; every number below comes from the cited endpoints.

**Headline:** SPY -2.3% · Semis -8.0% avg · VIX 20.7 (stress) · short momentum still negative-expectancy  
**Duration:** 111.9 s · **Voice:** edge-tts (en-US-AndrewMultilingualNeural, rate +25%)  
**Engine run:** `2026-10-30_postclose_2026-10-30T20-21-55-558Z` (Oct 30, 2026, 4:21 PM ET)

## Daily Overview  `0.0s–13.1s`

TRAI daily overview for October 30. Screening and research, not investment advice. SPY fell 2.3%, QQQ 3.5% and the chip ETF SMH 8.3%.

## Market regime  `13.1s–37.8s`

The VIX, the market's 30-day implied volatility, rose 3.5 points to 20.7, a stress reading. SPY's realized volatility, how much it actually moved over 20 days, is only 12.8%; that 7.9-point gap is the volatility risk premium. The term structure, short-dated versus 3-month VIX, is in mild contango, which is normal. TRAI's regime score is +4.5: neutral and choppy.

## What moved — and why  `37.8s–43.7s`

INTC fell 28.6% with no earnings in the data, so the cause is unknown here.

## Long momentum  `43.7s–57.4s`

Long momentum means a market-beating rise on heavy volume, closing above VWAP, the day's volume-weighted average price. REGN led with a residual z-score of 8.5, a market-adjusted move about 9 times its normal noise.

## Short momentum & mean reversion  `57.4s–67.4s`

Short momentum had 6 names, led by RBLX. Mean reversion, big moves on ordinary volume that may fade, flagged 17, led by SNOW.

## Scorecard — has it worked?  `67.4s–82.7s`

Over 126 replayed sessions, short momentum's expectancy, the average net profit per trade, is -0.45%, with a t-stat of -3.6: beyond ±2, so likely not luck. No bucket has a significant positive edge.

## Correlation clusters  `82.7s–92.5s`

Correlation clusters are stocks that move together: the largest, 24 names led by semis, has an average correlation of 0.58, so today's 6 shorts are about 4 independent bets.

## Earnings & gap risk  `92.5s–104.5s`

Gap risk is a jump past your stop overnight, often on earnings. 43 names report within 5 sessions, including picks SHOP, ANET and ETN on November 3.

## Sector rotation  `104.5s–112.3s`

Over 20 days, energy, health care and staples lead SPY by 13 to 13 points; semis and tech trail by 15 and 8.

## Sources

- `/trai/api/latest` — Yahoo Finance public chart API (https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/) — daily (6mo) and 5-minute (5d, incl. pre/post) bars. Unofficial, may be delayed.
- `/trai/api/regime` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (2y): SPY, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M and the full TRAI universe for breadth.
- `/trai/api/scorecard` — Yahoo Finance public chart API (daily, 2y) + TRAI stored runs in Vercel Blob.
- `/trai/api/events` — Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (calendarEvents, earnings: last 4 reported quarters with report timestamps) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API daily bars (2y) for price reactions.
- `/trai/api/correlations` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (1y).
- `/trai/api/intraday` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, 5-minute regular-session bars (60-day maximum lookback Yahoo serves for 5m).
- `/trai/api/options` — Yahoo Finance public options endpoint (v7/finance/options) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API for realized vol and ^IRX.
- `/trai/api/macro` — FRED was unreachable from the server, so rates come from US Treasury daily yield-curve CSVs (home.treasury.gov) and dollar/credit use Yahoo Finance proxies (DXY, HYG/IEF, LQD/IEF); Yahoo Finance for sector ETFs and SPY.
- Explanations of *why* a stock moved are limited to what the data shows (earnings report dates/EPS surprise from `/trai/api/events`). Moves without a matching event are labeled as unexplained.