# TRAI Daily Overview — Thursday, November 5, 2026

> **Screening/research, not investment advice.** Generated automatically from TRAI's public APIs; every number below comes from the cited endpoints.

**Headline:** SPY -4.4% · Semis -12.4% avg · VIX 28.2 (stress) · short momentum still negative-expectancy  
**Duration:** 110.7 s · **Voice:** edge-tts (en-US-AndrewMultilingualNeural, rate +25%)  
**Engine run:** `2026-11-05_postclose_2026-11-05T21-49-57-600Z` (Nov 5, 2026, 4:49 PM ET)

## Daily Overview  `0.0s–12.9s`

TRAI daily overview for November 5. Screening and research, not investment advice. SPY fell 4.4%, QQQ 6.5% and the chip ETF SMH 11.2%.

## Market regime  `12.9s–40.6s`

The VIX, the market's 30-day implied volatility, rose 11.6 points to 28.2, a stress reading. SPY's realized volatility, how much it actually moved over 20 days, is only 20.4%; that 7.8-point gap is the volatility risk premium. The term structure, short-dated versus 3-month VIX, is in backwardation (stress: near-term fear > 3-month), a stress signal. TRAI's regime score is -56.4: risk-off and choppy.

## What moved — and why  `40.6s–45.4s`

APP rose 31.0% with no earnings in the data, so the cause is unknown here.

## Long momentum  `45.4s–53.5s`

No names qualified for long momentum, which needs heavy volume, a market-adjusted gain and a close above VWAP, the day's volume-weighted average price.

## Short momentum & mean reversion  `53.5s–63.6s`

Short momentum had 35 names, 9 of them chips, led by PM. Mean reversion, big moves on ordinary volume that may fade, flagged 8, led by HON.

## Scorecard — has it worked?  `63.6s–81.7s`

Over 126 replayed sessions, short momentum's expectancy, the average net profit per trade, is -0.31%, with a t-stat of -2.4: beyond ±2, so likely not luck. Mean reversion — fade-short leg (after big up day) and Mean reversion (fade, both sides) clear that bar.

## Correlation clusters  `81.7s–92.2s`

Correlation clusters are stocks that move together: the largest, 26 names led by semis, has an average correlation of 0.64, so today's 35 shorts are about 6 independent bets.

## Earnings & gap risk  `92.2s–102.9s`

Gap risk is a jump past your stop overnight, often on earnings. 22 names report within 5 sessions, including picks AMAT and CSCO on November 12.

## Sector rotation  `102.9s–111.1s`

Over 20 days, health care, staples and real estate lead SPY by 14 to 15 points; semis and tech trail by 21 and 13.

## Sources

- `/trai/api/latest` — Yahoo Finance public chart API (https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/) — daily (6mo) and 5-minute (5d, incl. pre/post) bars. Unofficial, may be delayed.
- `/trai/api/regime` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (2y): SPY, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M and the full TRAI universe for breadth.
- `/trai/api/scorecard` — Yahoo Finance public chart API (daily, 2y; 5-minute 60d for the live-rule column) + TRAI stored runs in Vercel Blob.
- `/trai/api/events` — Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (calendarEvents, earnings: last 4 reported quarters with report timestamps) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API daily bars (2y) for price reactions.
- `/trai/api/correlations` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (1y).
- `/trai/api/intraday` — Yahoo Finance public chart API, 5-minute regular-session bars (60-day maximum lookback Yahoo serves for 5m).
- `/trai/api/options` — Yahoo Finance public options endpoint (v7/finance/options) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API for realized vol and ^IRX.
- `/trai/api/macro` — FRED was unreachable from the server, so rates come from US Treasury daily yield-curve CSVs (home.treasury.gov) and dollar/credit use Yahoo Finance proxies (DXY, HYG/IEF, LQD/IEF); Yahoo Finance for sector ETFs and SPY.
- Explanations of *why* a stock moved are limited to what the data shows (earnings report dates/EPS surprise from `/trai/api/events`). Moves without a matching event are labeled as unexplained.