WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.350 --> 00:00:07.018 Monday, November 2nd. TRAI's Friday post-close run, 4:21 PM. 2 00:00:07.118 --> 00:00:10.449 Public numbers, no advice. Open the ledger. 3 00:00:10.929 --> 00:00:13.636 Score slid 39.7 to 4.5 — risk-on down to the middle lane 4 00:00:13.656 --> 00:00:16.324 VIX at 19.42 — wind is up, but no hurricane 5 00:00:16.344 --> 00:00:19.091 ADX 15.3 — choppy water, no current pullin' either side 6 00:00:19.111 --> 00:00:21.818 Half the field above the twenty-day, less than half the fifty 7 00:00:21.838 --> 00:00:24.545 Friday the chip house shook — SMH down 6.98 8 00:00:24.565 --> 00:00:27.273 INTC caved 28.58 on a guide that came in late and light 9 00:00:27.293 --> 00:00:30.000 REGN flew 13.33 the other way, off the print 10 00:00:30.020 --> 00:00:32.727 Twenty days, the chips sit 15.33 behind SPY 11 00:00:32.747 --> 00:00:35.455 Energy, health care — both 13 points clear, the shelter's high 12 00:00:35.475 --> 00:00:38.182 Staples, utilities, both past ten — slow money hidin' in plain sight 13 00:00:38.202 --> 00:00:40.909 Ten-year 4.94, six bips lower — rates sittin' tight 14 00:00:40.929 --> 00:00:43.636 24 names in cluster one — they march as one 15 00:00:43.656 --> 00:00:46.364 Seven of 'em print this week — one trips, the whole block runs 16 00:00:46.384 --> 00:00:49.091 Neutral don't mean calm — it means the coin ain't done spun 17 00:00:49.111 --> 00:00:51.778 Cold ledger, eight laws — read 'em 'fore you swing 18 00:00:51.798 --> 00:00:54.599 Bell at 9:30 — wait till ten, let the open sing 19 00:00:54.619 --> 00:00:57.286 Quarter-percent a trade — half when the VIX tops twenty-two 20 00:00:57.306 --> 00:00:60.000 One ATR to the stop, two to the take — that's the cue 21 00:01:00.020 --> 00:01:02.727 Sixty minutes, no move? Close it out — no debate 22 00:01:02.747 --> 00:01:05.415 Three on the board, one per cluster — don't stack the weight 23 00:01:05.435 --> 00:01:08.182 Down one percent, desk goes dark — flat by 3:55, don't wait 24 00:01:08.202 --> 00:01:10.909 Public data, not advice — the ledger's cold and straight 25 00:01:10.929 --> 00:01:13.636 Six months of replay — 126 days on tape 26 00:01:13.656 --> 00:01:16.364 Long momentum leads: 0.216 a trade — not proof, just shape 27 00:01:16.384 --> 00:01:19.091 Fade-long right behind: 0.167, hittin' 54.22 28 00:01:19.111 --> 00:01:21.756 Buy the bruise, the bounce shows up — but the proof ain't due 29 00:01:21.776 --> 00:01:24.746 Short momentum: minus 0.448 a trade, t of minus 3.62 30 00:01:24.766 --> 00:01:27.433 Hit rate 41.69 — the blade keeps cuttin' through 31 00:01:27.453 --> 00:01:30.121 Suspended — RBLX fell 18, still we let it slide 32 00:01:30.141 --> 00:01:32.808 Live book: 81 picks scored, 26 still ridin' the clock 33 00:01:32.828 --> 00:01:35.495 Long momentum live — 19 picks, too few to crown it on the spot 34 00:01:35.515 --> 00:01:38.182 Top long: REGN, z 8.53 off the print 35 00:01:38.202 --> 00:01:40.909 But print-day pops run weak in the replay — S-100 told 36 00:01:40.929 --> 00:01:43.636 S-111 tags the fade-longs that report this week — half the load 37 00:01:43.656 --> 00:01:46.364 S-114: four in one cluster weigh as one stone 38 00:01:46.384 --> 00:01:49.091 Proposals on paper — the engine don't move till the tests are shown 39 00:01:49.111 --> 00:01:51.778 Cold ledger, eight laws — read 'em 'fore you swing 40 00:01:51.798 --> 00:01:54.599 Bell at 9:30 — wait till ten, let the open sing 41 00:01:54.619 --> 00:01:57.286 Quarter-percent a trade — half when the VIX tops twenty-two 42 00:01:57.306 --> 00:01:60.000 One ATR to the stop, two to the take — that's the cue 43 00:02:00.020 --> 00:02:02.727 Sixty minutes, no move? Close it out — no debate 44 00:02:02.747 --> 00:02:05.415 Three on the board, one per cluster — don't stack the weight 45 00:02:05.435 --> 00:02:08.182 Down one percent, desk goes dark — flat by 3:55, don't wait 46 00:02:08.202 --> 00:02:10.909 Public data, not advice — the ledger's cold and straight 47 00:02:10.929 --> 00:02:13.636 No Fed this week — the next rate call is December nine 48 00:02:13.656 --> 00:02:16.364 Monday factories at ten, Tuesday job openings — and the votin' line 49 00:02:16.384 --> 00:02:19.091 Wednesday services and trade, the Treasury sets its borrowin' sign 50 00:02:19.111 --> 00:02:21.818 Friday 8:30, the jobs count — October's on the line 51 00:02:21.838 --> 00:02:24.545 Tonight PLTR's priced for 13 — AAPL four and a half 52 00:02:24.565 --> 00:02:27.273 Tuesday Shopify at dawn, AMD, Arista at dusk 53 00:02:27.293 --> 00:02:30.000 Wednesday AppLovin priced 17.61 — the widest view 54 00:02:30.020 --> 00:02:32.727 Thursday NET at 15.53 — the cloud desk swingin' too 55 00:02:32.747 --> 00:02:35.455 Palantir's last four gaps — not one filled, 9.6 a jump 56 00:02:35.475 --> 00:02:38.145 Research says don't fade that gap the mornin' that it pumps 57 00:02:38.202 --> 00:02:40.909 Energy's the tightest big pack — eight names, one back 58 00:02:40.929 --> 00:02:43.636 COP, EOG, DVN all print Thursday — same track 59 00:02:43.656 --> 00:02:46.364 VIX over 22 and the risk per trade gets cut in half 60 00:02:46.384 --> 00:02:49.091 Till then a quarter-percent — keep the stops and do the math 61 00:02:49.111 --> 00:02:51.818 Sixty minutes, no move? Close it out — no debate 62 00:02:51.838 --> 00:02:54.506 Three on the board, one per cluster — don't stack the weight 63 00:02:54.526 --> 00:02:57.273 Down one percent, desk goes dark — flat by 3:55, don't wait 64 00:02:57.293 --> 00:03:00.190 Public data, not advice — the ledger's cold and straight 65 00:03:00.350 --> 00:03:02.766 That's the ledger for the week of November 2nd. 66 00:03:02.866 --> 00:03:07.588 Public data. Screening research. Not advice. Peace.